Myths v. Reality: Taking an honest look at college admissions

 There is a dominant idea that if you ‘work hard enough’ anything is possible. The reality of the American college admissions landscape is that this is rarely true. With experience supporting hundreds of students through the college process, including those who’ve landed spots at the nation’s most selective institutions, we want students and parents to know what we know about the realities of college admissions –

The truth about highly selective colleges

Not all, but the majority of students and parents we meet are interested in highly selective colleges. The definition of this can vary, but most of the time it comes down to a name brand that others will recognize, a certain position on a ranking list, and a low acceptance rate. The generally accepted definition of ‘highly selective’ is an acceptance rate under 20%. The truth is, most families who are thinking about ‘highly selective’ are focused on colleges with less than 10-15% acceptance rates, and the most sought after institutions have true acceptance rates lower than 5%. In practice, acceptance rates are sometimes even lower than the numbers that are published, and an increasing number of colleges are becoming more opaque about their admissions data.

Take the University of Pennsylvania. Penn no longer releases any detailed admissions data. What they do report is the number of applicants. For the high school class of 2024, the number of applicants was over 65,000. For this year’s graduating class that number topped 72,000. If you submitted an application to Penn, you were among 72,000 peers who did the same. Most of them applied to more than eight other colleges, increasing the numbers at similar institutions. Penn won’t tell you how many students they admit, but we do know they admit more than 50% of their class through their binding Early Decision process. We know that their typical first year class is around 2,400 students. They also won’t tell you what their yield rate is, but historical data from prior years suggests that it is near 70%. Other ivy league institutions have similar yield rates. That means that for every 10 students Penn admits, they can somewhat reliably expect seven of them to enroll. This means a university like Penn admits a much smaller portion of applicants to fill the class with their desired number of enrolled students. Rough estimates would suggest that Penn’s acceptance rate is in the 4% range based on this limited information. That 4% doesn’t account for the NCAA recruited athletes and legacy students. It doesn’t account for the fact that the acceptance rate is almost certainly at least a bit higher in the binding ED pool than in the regular pool. So if you are a hard working, high performing applicant without the benefit of familial connection or recruitment, the true acceptance rate may be well under 4%. The numbers look the same at similar institutions.

Are public universities a better bet?

As the competition at these most selective private universities has grown more steep, we’ve seen an increasing trend of families opting for ‘flagship public’ institutions. Think UMich, UNC Chapel Hill, UVA, and UT Austin. We see families assume that both price and likelihood of admission will be a better bet at these public universities. However, lots of families have the same idea, and as a result, the competition for out of state applicants is steep.

Public universities have also slowed the release of their admissions data, but we do have some numbers from a couple of years ago for most schools. While you may read a published acceptance rate at UNC Chapel Hill of about 17%, remember that as a public institution they have a mandate to reserve a significant portion of their enrollment for state residents. In North Carolina, that’s 82% of seats for in-state residents. So while NC residents are admitted at a rate above 40%, out of state students are getting in at about an 8% rate. Almost all of those are admitted through the early action round. This places the acceptance rate for out of state students in the regular decision round at or below acceptance rates at Ivies. Remember that some of these universities admit students to specific colleges and programs, so acceptance rates to popular schools of business or engineering can be even lower than the general out-of-state acceptance rates mentioned here. The numbers are strikingly similar at those other big name public universities like UVA, UMich, and UT Austin.
So what can students do?

First, let’s get honest about this reality. Telling students that if they get the right grades in the most rigorous classes, earn certain SAT scores, or do enough community service they can get in, simply isn’t true. Students can do everything right, and sometimes it just doesn’t work out. And that should be expected when we examine the numerical realities of the process. Many TBU students apply, gain admission to, and attend these highly selective schools. As Admissions Advisors, we support our students to best position themselves as applicants, build the academic and personal involvements that convey their capabilities, impact, and contributions, and tell their most compelling stories through the applications they craft. However, the most important work we do is help students to get clear about who they are, how they want to contribute in the world, what they are curious about, and what kinds of communities and experiences they need to thrive as college students. With that information, we help them identify colleges that align to their vision, and build a list that supports their goals with realistic options that extend beyond these most selective colleges to include a range of colleges that share their values and will be eager to have them. Students who know themselves and allow that to focus their efforts into meaningful involvements throughout high school craft better applications and have better admissions outcomes. Even more importantly, they develop clarity and purpose in who they are, confidence in what they have to contribute, and excitement for their college experience.

Just this week I met with a student who was deciding between many acceptances, including an ivy league institution they were surprised worked out in the regular decision process. Ultimately, they were weighing whether the ivy was the best fit for their goals, and the best community to support their growth, against a liberal arts school that guarantees them over $100,000 in scholarship funds, a research position from their first year, and a community where they clicked. I don’t know what this student will choose, but I’m glad they have options, and I’m thrilled they have come to know that their value isn’t defined by a name brand on a sweatshirt.

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